Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 18.
16 games and 15 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 7-8, -4.0u flat at -110. Season through week 18: 88-90, -30.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 CAR @  TBSat, Jan 3 16:30 ET | TB +3 | 43.5 | CAR 14 at TB 16TB +3 closed · CAR covered |
 SEA @  SFSat, Jan 3 20:00 ET | SF -2.5 | 47.5 | SEA 13 at SF 3SF -2.5 closed · SEA covered |
 ARI @  LASun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | LA +14.5 | 49.5 | ARI 20 at LA 37LA +14.5 closed · LA covered |
 BAL @  PITSun, Jan 4 20:20 ET | PIT -4.5 | 41.5 | BAL 24 at PIT 26PIT -4.5 closed · PIT covered |
 CLE @  CINSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | CIN +9.5 | 47.5 | CLE 20 at CIN 18CIN +9.5 closed · CLE covered |
 DAL @  NYGSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | NYG -3 | 50.5 | DAL 17 at NYG 34NYG -3 closed · NYG covered |
 DET @  CHISun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | CHI +3.5 | 51.5 | DET 19 at CHI 16CHI +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 GB @  MINSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | MIN +12.5 | 37.5 | GB 3 at MIN 16MIN +12.5 closed · MIN covered |
 IND @  HOUSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | HOU +9.5 | 37.5 | IND 30 at HOU 38HOU +9.5 closed · IND covered |
 KC @  LVSun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | LV -3.5 | 36.5 | KC 12 at LV 14LV -3.5 closed · LV covered |
 LAC @  DENSun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | DEN +14.5 | 37.5 | LAC 3 at DEN 19DEN +14.5 closed · DEN covered |
 MIA @  NESun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | NE +14 | 44.5 | MIA 10 at NE 38NE +14 closed · NE covered |
 NO @  ATLSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | ATL +4.5 | 43.5 | NO 17 at ATL 19ATL +4.5 closed · NO covered |
 NYJ @  BUFSun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | BUF +12.5 | 39.5 | NYJ 8 at BUF 35BUF +12.5 closed · BUF covered |
 TEN @  JAXSun, Jan 4 13:00 ET | JAX +12.5 | 46.5 | TEN 7 at JAX 41JAX +12.5 closed · JAX covered |
 WAS @  PHISun, Jan 4 16:25 ET | PHI +3 | 38.5 | WAS 24 at PHI 17PHI +3 closed · WAS covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ PIT WIN BAL -4.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 23-13 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, more rest than the opponent, blew someone out last week, worse record 18-11 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
CLE @ CIN WIN CLE +9.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 65-39 (62%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 76-48 (61%)
- model likes them by 3.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, on turf 51-33 (61%)
LAC @ DEN LOSS LAC +14.5 1.0u
- model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 71-44 (62%)
MIA @ NE LOSS MIA +14 3.0u
- model likes them by 2.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 36-15 (71%)
- model likes them by 1.0+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 42-18 (70%)
- model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 43-20 (68%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
SEA @ SF LOSS SEA -2.5 1.0u
- model fades them by 2.0+, on the road, blew someone out last week, better coach 92-60 (60%)
TEN @ JAX TOTALLOSS Under 46.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
SEA @ SF TOTALWIN Under 47.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CAR @ TB TOTALWIN Under 43.5 1.0u
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
KC @ LV TOTALLOSS Over 36.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
IND @ HOU TOTALWIN Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
GB @ MIN TOTALLOSS Over 37.5 1.0u
- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
NYJ @ BUF TOTALWIN Over 39.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
NO @ ATL TOTALLOSS Over 43.5 1.0u
- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
DET @ CHI TOTALWIN Under 51.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
DAL @ NYG TOTALLOSS Under 50.5 1.0u
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.