Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 11.
15 games and 12 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 5-7, -7.1u flat at -110. Season through week 11: 48-56, -28.0u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 NYJ @  NEThu, Nov 13 20:15 ET | NE +12.5 | 43.5 | NYJ 14 at NE 27NE +12.5 closed · NE covered |
 BAL @  CLESun, Nov 16 16:25 ET | CLE -7.5 | 37.5 | BAL 23 at CLE 16CLE -7.5 closed · CLE covered |
 CAR @  ATLSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | ATL +4.5 | 42.5 | CAR 30 at ATL 27ATL +4.5 closed · CAR covered |
 CHI @  MINSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | MIN +3 | 47.5 | CHI 19 at MIN 17MIN +3 closed · CHI covered |
 CIN @  PITSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | PIT +5.5 | 48.5 | CIN 12 at PIT 34PIT +5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 DET @  PHISun, Nov 16 20:20 ET | PHI +2.5 | 46.5 | DET 9 at PHI 16PHI +2.5 closed · PHI covered |
 GB @  NYGSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | NYG -7.5 | 41.5 | GB 27 at NYG 20NYG -7.5 closed · NYG covered |
 HOU @  TENSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | TEN -5.5 | 37.5 | HOU 16 at TEN 13TEN -5.5 closed · TEN covered |
 KC @  DENSun, Nov 16 16:25 ET | DEN -3.5 | 44.5 | KC 19 at DEN 22DEN -3.5 closed · DEN covered |
 LAC @  JAXSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | JAX -3 | 43.5 | LAC 6 at JAX 35JAX -3 closed · JAX covered |
 SEA @  LASun, Nov 16 16:05 ET | LA +3 | 49.5 | SEA 19 at LA 21LA +3 closed · SEA covered |
 SF @  ARISun, Nov 16 16:05 ET | ARI -3.5 | 48.5 | SF 41 at ARI 22ARI -3.5 closed · SF covered |
 TB @  BUFSun, Nov 16 13:00 ET | BUF +6 | 46.5 | TB 32 at BUF 44BUF +6 closed · BUF covered |
 WAS @  MIASun, Nov 16 09:30 ET | MIA +2.5 | 47.5 | WAS 13 at MIA 16MIA +2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 DAL @  LVMon, Nov 17 20:15 ET | LV -3.5 | 48.5 | DAL 33 at LV 16LV -3.5 closed · DAL covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
BAL @ CLE - model fades them by 3.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 63-39 (62%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, elite QB 77-48 (62%)
TB @ BUF - model fades them by 0.5+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 19-9 (68%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, at home, worse QB, elite QB 16-9 (64%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, lost last week, worse QB, elite QB 16-9 (64%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
GB @ NYG - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 73-45 (62%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, on turf 75-49 (60%)
NYJ @ NE - model likes them by 0.5+, big underdog (7+), won last week, better QB 43-20 (68%)
SF @ ARI - model fades them by 3.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 32-9 (78%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, elite QB, division game, in a dome 29-14 (67%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, division game, in a dome 41-22 (65%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
DET @ PHI TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 97-72 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
TB @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
GB @ NYG TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big underdog 24-12 (67%)
- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- and 4 more angles on this side
CIN @ PIT TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
BAL @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big underdog 24-12 (67%)
- under when windy, low total (41 or under) 105-79 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
SF @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
SEA @ LA TOTAL- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.