Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 16.
16 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 3-6, -6.9u flat at -110. Season through week 16: 73-77, -31.7u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 LA @  SEAThu, Dec 18 20:15 ET | SEA +1.5 | 42.5 | LA 37 at SEA 38SEA +1.5 closed · LA covered |
 GB @  CHISat, Dec 20 20:20 ET | CHI +1.5 | 45.5 | GB 16 at CHI 22CHI +1.5 closed · CHI covered |
 PHI @  WASSat, Dec 20 17:00 ET | WAS -7 | 43.5 | PHI 29 at WAS 18WAS -7 closed · PHI covered |
 ATL @  ARISun, Dec 21 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 48.5 | ATL 26 at ARI 19ARI -2.5 closed · ATL covered |
 BUF @  CLESun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | CLE -10.5 | 41.5 | BUF 23 at CLE 20CLE -10.5 closed · CLE covered |
 CIN @  MIASun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | MIA -3.5 | 48.5 | CIN 45 at MIA 21MIA -3.5 closed · CIN covered |
 JAX @  DENSun, Dec 21 16:05 ET | DEN +3.5 | 46.5 | JAX 34 at DEN 20DEN +3.5 closed · JAX covered |
 KC @  TENSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | TEN -3.5 | 37.5 | KC 9 at TEN 26TEN -3.5 closed · TEN covered |
 LAC @  DALSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | DAL +1.5 | 50.5 | LAC 34 at DAL 17DAL +1.5 closed · LAC covered |
 LV @  HOUSun, Dec 21 16:25 ET | HOU +14.5 | 39.5 | LV 21 at HOU 23HOU +14.5 closed · LV covered |
 MIN @  NYGSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | NYG -2.5 | 41.5 | MIN 16 at NYG 13NYG -2.5 closed · MIN covered |
 NE @  BALSun, Dec 21 20:20 ET | BAL +3.5 | 48.5 | NE 28 at BAL 24BAL +3.5 closed · NE covered |
 NYJ @  NOSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | NO +6.5 | 39.5 | NYJ 6 at NO 29NO +6.5 closed · NO covered |
 PIT @  DETSun, Dec 21 16:25 ET | DET +7.5 | 52.5 | PIT 29 at DET 24DET +7.5 closed · PIT covered |
 TB @  CARSun, Dec 21 13:00 ET | CAR -3 | 44.5 | TB 20 at CAR 23CAR -3 closed · CAR covered |
 SF @  INDMon, Dec 22 20:15 ET | IND -4.5 | 46.5 | SF 48 at IND 27IND -4.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CIN @ MIA - model fades them by 3.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 21-7 (75%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 35-18 (66%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, more rest than the opponent, got blown out last week, better coach 24-13 (65%)
- and 6 more angles on this side
KC @ TEN - model likes them by 2.0+, favorite, on the road, worse QB 17-9 (65%)
SF @ IND - model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, better QB, in a dome 61-38 (62%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, better QB, in a dome, on turf 92-58 (61%)
- model fades them by 3.0+, won last week, elite QB, in a dome 43-28 (61%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
LA @ SEA TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, windy 101-66 (60%)
- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when windy, line inside 3 97-72 (57%)
- and 3 more angles on this side
BUF @ CLE TOTAL- under when windy, home team a big underdog 24-12 (67%)
- under when windy, a new starting QB 80-60 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
MIN @ NYG TOTAL- under when windy, line inside 3 97-72 (57%)
- under when windy 260-203 (56%)
LV @ HOU TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
NYJ @ NO TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
- over when on turf, low total (41 or under) 245-191 (56%)
CIN @ MIA TOTAL- over when high total (48+), home team off Monday night 60-38 (61%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.