Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 14.
14 games and 9 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-5, -1.5u flat at -110. Season through week 14: 66-69, -25.5u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL @  DETThu, Dec 4 20:15 ET | DET +3.5 | 55.5 | DAL 30 at DET 44DET +3.5 closed · DET covered |
 CHI @  GBSun, Dec 7 16:25 ET | GB +6.5 | 44.5 | CHI 21 at GB 28GB +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 CIN @  BUFSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | BUF +6 | 54.5 | CIN 34 at BUF 39BUF +6 closed · CIN covered |
 DEN @  LVSun, Dec 7 16:05 ET | LV -8.5 | 40.5 | DEN 24 at LV 17LV -8.5 closed · LV covered |
 HOU @  KCSun, Dec 7 20:20 ET | KC +4.5 | 41.5 | HOU 20 at KC 10KC +4.5 closed · HOU covered |
 IND @  JAXSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | JAX -2.5 | 44.5 | IND 19 at JAX 36JAX -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 LA @  ARISun, Dec 7 16:25 ET | ARI -9.5 | 49.5 | LA 45 at ARI 17ARI -9.5 closed · LA covered |
 MIA @  NYJSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | NYJ -2.5 | 41.5 | MIA 34 at NYJ 10NYJ -2.5 closed · MIA covered |
 NO @  TBSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | TB +7.5 | 41.5 | NO 24 at TB 20TB +7.5 closed · NO covered |
 PIT @  BALSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | BAL +5.5 | 43.5 | PIT 27 at BAL 22BAL +5.5 closed · PIT covered |
 SEA @  ATLSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | ATL -7 | 44.5 | SEA 37 at ATL 9ATL -7 closed · SEA covered |
 TEN @  CLESun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | CLE +4.5 | 33.5 | TEN 31 at CLE 29CLE +4.5 closed · TEN covered |
 WAS @  MINSun, Dec 7 13:00 ET | MIN -1.5 | 43.5 | WAS 0 at MIN 31MIN -1.5 closed · MIN covered |
 PHI @  LACMon, Dec 8 20:15 ET | LAC -1.5 | 41.5 | PHI 19 at LAC 22LAC -1.5 closed · LAC covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
CHI @ GB - model likes them by 0.5+, on the road, less rest than the opponent, division game 71-44 (62%)
DEN @ LV - model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), on the road, in a dome 54-32 (63%)
- model fades them by 0.5+, big favorite (7+), on the road, in a dome 55-35 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, big favorite (7+), division game, in a dome 56-36 (61%)
- and 2 more angles on this side
WAS @ MIN - model likes them by 0.5+, got blown out last week, better record, in a dome 24-16 (60%)
MIA @ NYJ - model fades them by 1.0+, underdog, at home, on turf 54-36 (60%)
CIN @ BUF TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
IND @ JAX TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, line inside 3 168-131 (56%)
- under when rain in the forecast 462-377 (55%)
NO @ TB TOTAL- under when rain in the forecast, division game 172-123 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a new starting QB 138-99 (58%)
- under when rain in the forecast, a team looking ahead to a division game 249-200 (56%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
DEN @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
LA @ ARI TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
- under when high total (48+), division game 205-166 (55%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.