Weekly Lines · 2025
Week 12.
14 games and 6 plays, replayed walk-forward on angles chosen from the seasons before 2025. Every number is open.
This week's plays: 4-2, +1.8u flat at -110. Season through week 12: 52-58, -26.2u flat at -110.
| Game | Market | Total | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
 BUF @  HOUThu, Nov 20 20:15 ET | HOU -5.5 | 43.5 | BUF 19 at HOU 23HOU -5.5 closed · HOU covered |
 ATL @  NOSun, Nov 23 16:25 ET | NO +1.5 | 41.5 | ATL 24 at NO 10NO +1.5 closed · ATL covered |
 CLE @  LVSun, Nov 23 16:05 ET | LV +3 | 35.5 | CLE 24 at LV 10LV +3 closed · CLE covered |
 IND @  KCSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | KC +3.5 | 50.5 | IND 20 at KC 23KC +3.5 closed · IND covered |
 JAX @  ARISun, Nov 23 16:05 ET | ARI -2.5 | 47.5 | JAX 27 at ARI 24ARI -2.5 closed · JAX covered |
 MIN @  GBSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | GB +6.5 | 41.5 | MIN 6 at GB 23GB +6.5 closed · GB covered |
 NE @  CINSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | CIN -7.5 | 50.5 | NE 26 at CIN 20CIN -7.5 closed · CIN covered |
 NYG @  DETSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | DET +14 | 50.5 | NYG 27 at DET 34DET +14 closed · NYG covered |
 NYJ @  BALSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | BAL +14 | 44.5 | NYJ 10 at BAL 23BAL +14 closed · NYJ covered |
 PHI @  DALSun, Nov 23 16:25 ET | DAL -3 | 47.5 | PHI 21 at DAL 24DAL -3 closed · DAL covered |
 PIT @  CHISun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | CHI +3 | 46.5 | PIT 28 at CHI 31CHI +3 closed · push |
 SEA @  TENSun, Nov 23 13:00 ET | TEN -12.5 | 41.5 | SEA 30 at TEN 24TEN -12.5 closed · TEN covered |
 TB @  LASun, Nov 23 20:20 ET | LA +7 | 49.5 | TB 7 at LA 34LA +7 closed · LA covered |
 CAR @  SFMon, Nov 24 20:15 ET | SF +7.5 | 48.5 | CAR 9 at SF 20SF +7.5 closed · SF covered |
The plays
A play is an angle with a prior record, staked by that record. The model's number alone is never a play.
The angle board mined, walk-forward record behind each
NYJ @ BAL - model fades them by 2.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, won last week 78-52 (60%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, won last week, better coach 75-50 (60%)
IND @ KC - model fades them by 3.0+, at home, less rest than the opponent, high total (48+) 15-10 (60%)
CLE @ LV - model fades them by 2.0+, got blown out last week, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 17-10 (63%)
- model fades them by 2.0+, less rest than the opponent, low total (41 or under) 75-48 (61%)
- model fades them by 1.0+, better coach, in a dome, low total (41 or under) 38-25 (60%)
- and 1 more angle on this side
CLE @ LV TOTAL- over when in a dome, low total (41 or under) 124-81 (60%)
PHI @ DAL TOTAL- over when on turf, home team off Monday night 102-82 (55%)
NE @ CIN TOTAL- under when high total (48+), home team a big underdog 61-30 (67%)
Read it straight. Five rules frozen 2026-08-28 before Week 1, git-timestamped, append-only. Flat 1u. Historical: the frozen card went 91-83, +6.8u over 2015-2025, 7 of 11 winning seasons; the weather family 362-334-11, +19.1u over 2010-2025. This season was replayed walk-forward: the angles were chosen on the seasons before it and fired on its games, so nothing here was scored on the games that found it. It is a replay, not a published record. 2026 is the first season we posted before kickoff.